A new analysis from the National Taxpayers Union Foundation’s Interstate Commerce Initiative reveals stark divides in U.S. taxpayer migration, with high-tax states experiencing the fastest resident departures while low-tax counterparts attract newcomers at a brisk pace.
The report, based on IRS data for residency changes between 2021 and 2022, quantifies net migration rates to highlight how often states gain or lose residents on average.
Top Gainers: Florida Leads with New Resident Every 2 Minutes
The study identifies 16 states that collectively add a new resident at least hourly, driven largely by inbound moves from higher-tax jurisdictions. Leading the pack are:
- Florida: Every 2 minutes and 9 seconds
- Texas: Every 2 minutes and 53 seconds
- North Carolina: Every 6 minutes and 21 seconds
- South Carolina: Every 7 minutes and 30 seconds
- Tennessee: Every 8 minutes and 42 seconds
These influxes, particularly among high-income earners, are projected to boost Florida’s tax revenue by $4.2 billion in 2025 alone, according to NTUF Director Andrew Wilford.
Top Losers: California Bleeds Residents Faster Than Florida Gains Them
Conversely, 11 states lose residents at least hourly, with outflows concentrated in high-tax environments. California tops the list, shedding a resident every 1 minute and 44 seconds—outpacing Florida’s gains. Other states with elevated emigration rates include:
- New York: Every 2 minutes and 23 seconds
- Illinois: Every 6 minutes and 4 seconds
- Massachusetts: Every 11 minutes and 38 seconds
- New Jersey: Every 14 minutes and 14 seconds
These trends have compounded over time: From 2011 to 2021, California lost $102 billion in net adjusted gross income to interstate migration, New York $111 billion, and Illinois $63 billion. For 2025, California faces a $4.5 billion revenue shortfall, followed by New York’s $3.8 billion hit.
Policy Implications: High-Tax States Shift Burdens Without Reforms
NTUF notes that states like New York and California, rather than reforming tax codes for competitiveness, have sought to offset losses by imposing more obligations on nonresidents.
Wilford emphasized that while taxes aren’t the sole driver, they significantly influence relocation decisions, with high earners—net contributors to state coffers—disproportionately affected. The report underscores interstate competition as a mechanism for fiscal accountability, urging policymakers to consider its revenue impacts beyond immediate services.
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