Anyone who was paying to the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign up until he announced he was suspending his efforts to win a term in the White House knows that he is probably the most successful third-party/independent candidate running for President since Ross Perot. Despite the fact that the Democrat Party has done everything they can to keep him out of the big picture for 2024, he created a campaign movement that overcame countless obstacles to get on ballots all over the nation.

His dropping out was always going to be a big decision, and an endorsement would be massive for whoever would receive it. So when Donald Trump picked up the strong Kennedy endorsement, everyone knew it was going to make waves. The smallest shifts into Donald Trump’s favor in swing states is going to be game-changing.

Even though the media is trying to pretend like it’s had no impact on the election, the latest polls absolutely demonstrate a significant shift in Donald Trump’s favor in key swing states that should seriously worry Kamala Harris and her Democrat allies. The impact means tens of thousands of voters are now on the table for Donald Trump to win over.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey, likely voters view the endorsement positively to the tune of plus four points. The poll of 1,611 likely voters showed that fifteen percent of the likely voters say that they view Trump’s ticket “less favorably” after the Kennedy endorsement. That lags behind the nineteen percent of voters who say that they view Trump’s ticket more favorably after the Kennedy endorsement.

It’s no surprise that a majority of likely voters said that the Kennedy endorsement has no impact on their views of the Trump campaign or the Harris campaign. The reason for that is that this was a sample of all likely voters, not just likely voters who previously identified themselves as likely Harris, Kennedy, or Trump voters.

New Quinnipiac national poll of likely voters — Does Kennedy's endorsement of Trump make you think more favorably or less favorably of Trump, or have no impact?
64% no impact (63% among indies)
19% more favorably (22%)
15% less favorably (14%)https://t.co/Ei5YwlN4Pu

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) August 29, 2024

Naturally, the media is trying to say that this means that Donald Trump is seeing “no benefit” to the endorsement from Kennedy. But this isn’t true at all. All it takes is a little bit of analysis of what the marginal benefit means for the battleground districts that will decide how the 2024 election falls.

In 2020, Pennsylvania had about 7 million total voters cast ballots for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. The margin of victory of Joe Biden in that swing state was just 80,000 votes, or just over 1% of the total ballots cast in the state.

Four percent of 7 million voters is 280,000 votes. Even if just a quarter of the people who indicated they view Trump’s campaign more favorably are willing to switch their vote for Donald Trump instead of for Kennedy or for Harris, then the math indicates he could already be closing the gap of his 2020 loss in that state.

A similar story is told with the surveys in other swing states like North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. It’s simply untrue that the surveys needed to show a majority of Kennedy supporters backing Trump to be a significant change. Just the smallest shift will be a difference maker this November.

Media Lying To The American People

It’s been shocking to see the media outright lying to the American people about where this election stands in a post-RFK endorsement of Donald Trump world. They are declaring that it’s had no impact whatsoever, almost in an attempt to damage control the situation.

The New York Sun ran a headline saying “RFK Jr.’s Backing of Trump Appears To Have Had No Immediate Impact on Swing States“. MSN ran a headline that said “Voters mostly unchanged after RFK Jr. endorsement of Trump“. In the MSN piece, they claim that the endorsement doesn’t have an “outsize impact on the presidential race.”

Notably, the political betting websites have shown Donald Trump getting a small boost in odds to win according to the people who are actually putting money on either Kamala Harrs or Donald Trump to win. Prior to the Kennedy endorsement, Polymarket had Donald Trump behind Kamala Harris by about 3-5% in their betting market.

Today, Donald Trump has opened up a 2% gap over Kamala Harris on the betting site, indicating a 5-7 point swing from just before the endorsement from the Kennedy heir. The two candidates are exceedingly close on the betting websites, to be clear though.

What is absolutely clear, though, is that this election will come down to the wire. There won’t be any major blowouts as all the swing states are showing tight races that can be shifted and fall in the hands of either candidate by the gust of winds.

That’s exactly why a small benefit for Donald Trump from Robert F. Kennedy’s support of him is such a big deal, though. That’s what the media won’t tell you.

What do you think? Is Donald Trump better off with the endorsement from the most successful third-party campaign since Ross Perot? Or is it a nothing burger? Sound off in the comments below.