President Donald Trump has thrown down the gauntlet, threatening a staggering 50 percent tariff on Chinese goods if Beijing refuses to reverse its retaliatory 34 percent tariff, imposed last Friday. This bold move signals a new chapter in the escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies, with Trump firmly in the driver’s seat. The Chinese tariff, a mirror of the 34 percent levy Trump placed on Chinese products on April 2, is just the latest salvo in a conflict that’s been simmering for months. But with the President now poised to push the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods to an eye-watering 115 percent, the question looms: can China withstand the pressure?

The roots of this clash trace back to February and March, when Trump imposed two rounds of 10 percent tariffs on China, citing its role in the fentanyl crisis. Combined with other measures, these actions have already driven the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports to roughly 65 percent. If Trump follows through on his latest threat, the economic wall separating Chinese goods from American markets will become nearly insurmountable. China, in response, has tacked on its own retaliatory tariffs of 10 and 15 percent on select American products this year, but these pale in comparison to the scale of Trump’s arsenal.

The trade war is no longer a distant threat—it’s here, and it’s fierce. Both sides are digging in, but the dynamics favor Trump’s America. China’s economy, heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., is teetering on unsteady ground. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs are designed to protect American workers and industries while forcing Beijing to rethink its predatory economic practices. The President’s strategy is clear: apply maximum pressure until China bends.

“Anyone expecting President Xi to come calling and seek a call with President Trump following April 2 tariff announcement is being dangerously naive,” Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution posted on X last Friday. “Anyone advising Trump that Xi will beg for forgiveness is committing malpractice. That is not the mood or the plan in Beijing now.” Hass captures the defiance in Beijing, but he misses a critical point: China’s bravado masks a deepening vulnerability. Xi Jinping’s regime is playing a dangerous game, betting on its ability to outlast Trump’s resolve. But the numbers tell a different story.

China’s economy is less than two-thirds the size of America’s, with a reported $18.8 trillion in GDP last year—likely inflated—compared to the U.S.’s $29.2 trillion. More critically, China’s trade surplus with the U.S., which hit $295.4 billion in 2024, gives it far more to lose in a prolonged trade war. As a trade-surplus nation, China depends on American markets to keep its factories humming and its entire economy afloat. Trump, by contrast, holds the upper hand, wielding tariffs as a precision tool to disrupt Beijing’s export-driven model.

Xi’s refusal to pivot toward a consumption-based economy only compounds China’s troubles. For years, he’s prioritized industrial output over empowering Chinese consumers, keeping bank deposit rates low to funnel money into state-backed factories. This approach has fueled China’s manufacturing overcapacity, flooding global markets with cheap goods and inviting the very tariffs Trump is now imposing. As Zongyuan Zoe Liu writes in Foreign Affairs, the Communist Party views consumption as “an individualistic distraction that threatens to divert resources away from China’s core economic strength: its industrial base.” Xi’s dogma is his Achilles’ heel.

By doubling down on manufacturing, Xi is pleasing his party loyalists and propping up China’s war machine, but he’s also painting himself into a corner. The overcapacity problem—deliberately exacerbated by Beijing’s policies—has left China with no choice but to export its surplus goods. Trump’s tariffs, however, are slamming the door on the American market, China’s most lucrative destination. “President Trump’s broken their business model with these tariffs,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Tucker Carlson on April 4. “They’ve just got such a big deficit with us that they need our markets. They can’t survive without them.”

Trump Can See The Cracks In China’s Economy & Pours Salt On The Wound

The President’s confidence is well-founded. China’s economy is showing signs of strain, with indicators pointing to a deflationary spiral rather than the 5 percent growth Beijing claims. Xi’s rejection of consumer spending has left him with few tools to counter Trump’s offensive. In 2018, China absorbed much of the cost of Trump’s tariffs to maintain market access, but today’s higher stakes and weaker economic position make that strategy unsustainable. “I wouldn’t want to be in Xi Jinping’s shoes right now,” trade expert Alan Tonelson told Newsweek on Monday. “There are empty chambers in his six-shooter.”

Xi’s only hope is to wait out Trump, banking on domestic or global pressure to force the President to relent. Beijing’s foreign ministry seized on last week’s global stock market sell-off, declaring, “The market has spoken.” But markets are fickle, and Trump’s resolve appears unshaken. His tariffs are not just about economics—they’re about restoring American sovereignty and countering China’s predatory practices. The President’s supporters see this as a long-overdue correction to decades of trade imbalances that favored Beijing at America’s expense.

China’s desperation is starting to show. Reports suggest Beijing is offering subsidies to offset Trump’s tariffs, with Chinese suppliers undercutting competitors to secure American contracts. In 2018, China’s government and factories shouldered 75 to 81 percent of Trump’s 25 percent tariffs, but absorbing today’s higher rates will drain Beijing’s coffers faster. Xi’s regime is burning through resources to stay in the fight, but time is not on his side. Trump’s strategy is to squeeze until China has no choice but to negotiate.

The President has made it clear that tariffs are just one piece of a larger puzzle. “Hundreds of billions of dollars a year we lose to China, and unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. For Xi, rebalancing trade with America would require a fundamental restructuring of China’s economy—a prospect that clashes with the Communist Party’s core ideology. Xi’s refusal to adapt leaves him exposed, unable to meet Trump’s demands without undermining his own power base.

Trump’s supporters argue that this trade war is about more than economics—it’s about reclaiming America’s place in the world. For too long, they say, China has exploited open markets while flouting fair trade principles. The President’s tariffs are a direct challenge to that status quo, forcing Beijing to confront the consequences of its actions. Critics may warn of rising consumer prices or market turmoil, but Trump’s backers see these as short-term pains for long-term gains.

China’s defiance, meanwhile, feels increasingly hollow. Xi’s rhetoric may rally his domestic base, but it can’t change the math. A trade-surplus economy like China’s is uniquely vulnerable to tariffs, especially when imposed by its largest customer. Trump’s willingness to escalate shows he’s not bluffing, and Beijing’s options are dwindling. The President’s critics at home may grumble, but his base sees a leader unafraid to take on America’s adversaries head-on.

The global fallout from this trade war is undeniable—stock markets are reeling, and uncertainty looms. But Trump’s gamble is rooted in a simple truth: China needs America more than America needs China. By leveraging that imbalance, the President is reshaping the terms of global trade in America’s favor. Xi’s regime may dig in for now, but the pressure is mounting, and cracks are already appearing.

As the trade war intensifies, Trump’s resolve will be tested, but his position is strong. He’s betting that China’s economic weaknesses will force Xi to the table—or risk collapse. For Americans watching at home, the message is clear: the President is fighting for their interests, unafraid to wield the full power of the U.S. economy. In this high-stakes showdown, Trump’s tariffs are not just a tactic—they’re a declaration that America will no longer play by China’s rules.

The winner of this trade war won’t be decided by who blinks first, but by who can stomach a marathon of a trade war. With China’s economy faltering and Trump holding the stronger hand, the outcome seems increasingly clear. The President’s tariff strategy is a masterstroke, positioning America to emerge victorious in a contest Beijing can’t afford to lose.

What do you think about the latest trade war with China? Does China need to be forced to play fair? Let us know in the comments below.