In a surprising turn for deep-blue California, Republican candidates are pulling ahead in recent gubernatorial polls, exposing cracks in the Democratic stronghold as their crowded field fragments voter support.
With the jungle primary just months away—where the top two advance regardless of party—this development highlights how Democratic infighting and policy failures could hand Republicans an unexpected edge in the 2026 race.
Republicans Dominate Key Polls Amid Democratic Disarray
Fresh polling data reveals GOP frontrunners Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco outpacing their Democratic opponents, signaling voter frustration with years of liberal governance.
An Emerson College Polling survey, conducted February 13-14 among 1,000 likely voters, shows Hilton leading at 17%, with Bianco and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell tied at 14%, and former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter at 10%.
Since December, Hilton surged five points, Swalwell gained two, Bianco added one, while Porter slipped one—underscoring how Democrats are struggling to consolidate amid economic woes and unchecked progressive agendas.
Breaking it down by party, Swalwell tops Democrats with 23% support, followed by Porter at 14%, billionaire Tom Steyer at 12%, and 22% undecided. Republicans are evenly split, with Hilton at 38% and Bianco at 37%, plus 6% for Swalwell and 11% undecided.
Independents lean heavily toward Hilton at 22%, Bianco at 12%, Swalwell at just 4%, and 30% undecided—further illustrating Democratic vulnerabilities in appealing beyond their base.
Second Survey Confirms GOP Lead as Democrats Fragment
Another poll from Tavern Research, conducted February 2-5 among 1,097 likely voters and circulated via Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra’s campaign, reinforces the trend: Bianco leads with 20%, Hilton at 12%, and Swalwell at 10%.
With over ten Democrats vying for the spot, their vote is splintering dramatically, raising the specter of a Republican lockout in the general election.
Elections expert Paul Mitchell told KCRA3 Political Director Ashley Zavala on Sunday that there’s roughly a 12% chance two Republicans could advance, though he cautioned Democrats against dismissing it outright, noting the odds are slim but real— a wake-up call for a party bogged down by internal divisions and out-of-touch priorities.
GOP Infighting Highlights Strategic Push Against Weak Opponents
While Republicans hold the momentum, internal tensions are emerging as Hilton distances himself from Bianco.
Speaking to the Daily Caller News Foundation on Monday, Hilton downplayed the two-Republican scenario as unlikely, warning instead that two Democrats would likely face off unless voters rally behind one GOP candidate, pointedly targeting Bianco.
This marks a shift in Hilton’s approach, which intensified during January’s debate where he urged Bianco to drop out over allegations of kneeling with Black Lives Matter protesters in 2020.
Hilton’s campaign ramped up attacks on Wednesday, responding to Bianco’s sharing of the Tavern poll by calling it a “fake” Democrat “internal poll” pushed to “boost the weaker Republican.” They added, “They know the BLM Bianco video will crater Republican turnout. Steve Hilton is leading in reputable independent polls, including the latest Emerson poll.”
This GOP edge in traditionally Democratic California underscores growing discontent with liberal policies, offering Republicans a prime opportunity to capitalize on the chaos.
