Former President Trump has widened his lead over President Biden following last week’s debate, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll. Trump now leads Biden by 6 points among likely voters, up from a 3-point lead the previous week.
The poll shows Trump with 49 percent compared to Biden’s 43 percent, marking his largest lead in a Times/Siena poll since his initial presidential run in 2015. Among registered voters, Trump’s lead extends to 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent.
These results emerge as Biden’s campaign attempts to recover from a disastrous debate performance that has heightened concerns among Democrats about Biden’s capability to defeat Trump and serve another term.
The debate performance, less than a week old, has prompted early polling that consistently shows Trump either maintaining or increasing his lead over Biden.
This Times/Siena poll reveals a 3-point swing in Trump’s favor among both likely and registered voters compared to pre-debate numbers.
Plagued by doubts about his fitness for office, Biden had an opportunity during the debate to prove his vitality despite his age. Instead, he delivered a lackluster performance, stumbling over his words, displaying low energy, and struggling to articulate clear responses to questions.
The poll indicates a rise in the percentage of voters concerned about Biden’s age. Now, 74 percent believe he’s too old to serve as president, a 5-point increase from before the debate. This includes 59 percent of Democrats, up 8 points, and 79 percent of independents.
The debate and subsequent polling have led to calls from some Democrats to replace Biden as the nominee. However, the poll did not show a significant increase in the percentage of Democrats wanting a different nominee.
Among Democrats, those wanting a different nominee rose by 2 points to 47 percent, while those supporting Biden dropped by 4 points to 48 percent. Independents remained steady, with 72 percent wanting a different nominee and about 20 percent supporting Biden.
In response, the White House and Biden campaign have tried to manage the fallout and emphasize that Biden intends to stay in the race. Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon argued in a memo obtained by The Hill that internal battleground polling shows the contest between Biden and Trump as a “steady race,” predicting only a “slightly larger swing” in the forthcoming Times/Siena poll.
The memo claims the campaign is “down just 1 point in margin,” within the margin of error.
“Polls are a snapshot in time and we should all expect them to continue to fluctuate,” the memo states. “It will take a few weeks, not a few days, to get a full picture of the race.”
Biden campaign pollster Molly Murphy acknowledged the close race and noted that Biden is narrowing Trump’s lead among independents but admitted that the campaign has “work to do” to solidify its coalition.
Murphy also cited Times political analyst Nate Cohn, who stated that the results do not represent a “fundamental” change in the race.
“The work our campaign is doing on the ground will be critical to win over voters in a low trust and divided political environment,” Murphy said.
“Trump’s team is doing virtually none of that work, while also being saddled with the baggage of a toxic agenda to undecided voters. President Biden has work to do but will be running on mobilizing issues that we are confident will bring him to victory this November.”
However, the data from the Times poll shows troubling signs for the Biden campaign. In a race including third-party and independent candidates, Trump’s lead increased by 2 points to a 5-point lead, 42 percent to 37 percent. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnered 8 percent.
The Times noted that its pre-debate survey was more favorable to Trump than the national polling average, suggesting Republicans were more responsive to pollsters than Democrats, potentially indicating higher enthusiasm for Trump following his criminal conviction in May.
Further breakdowns of the poll reveal additional concerns for Biden. Trump leads among voters aged 18 to 29 by 8 points and among Hispanics by 9 points, both critical demographics for recent Democratic victories.
Respondents listed the economy and inflation as their top concerns, with Trump holding a comfortable lead among those prioritizing these issues.
Biden did improve his lead among likely female voters from 5 points to 8 points, but Trump saw significant gains among likely male voters, jumping from a 12-point lead to 23 points.
The poll surveyed 1,532 registered voters from June 28 to July 2, with a margin of error of 2.8 points.
Stay tuned to Silent Majority Report.
